Saturday, October 03, 2009

Record Streak Continues for Pending Home Sales

RISMEDIA, October 3, 2009—Pending home sales have increased for seven straight months, the longest in the series of the index which began in 2001, according to the National Association of Realtors®.
The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator based on contracts signed in August 2009, rose 6.4% to 103.8 from a reading of 97.6 in July, and is 12.4% above August 2008 when it was 92.4. The index is at the highest level since March 2007 when it was 104.5.
Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said not all contracts are turning into closed sales within an expected timeframe. “The rise in pending home sales shows buyers are returning to the market and signing contracts, but deals are not necessarily closing because of long delays related to short sales, and issues regarding complex new appraisal rules,” he said. “No doubt many first-time buyers are rushing to beat the deadline for the $8,000 tax credit, which expires at the end of next month.”
The Pending Home Sales Index in the Northeast jumped 8.2% to 85.3 in August and is 12.0% higher than August 2008. In the Midwest the index rose 3.1% to 90.8 in August and is 7.6% above a year ago. In the South, pending home sales increased 0.8% to an index of 104.6 and is 8.2% above August 2008. In the West the index surged 16.0% to 130.5 and is 22.3% above a year ago.
“There is likely to be some double counting over a span of several months because some buyers whose contracts were cancelled have found another home and signed a new contract to buy,” Yun explained. “Perhaps the real question is how many transactions are being delayed in the pipeline, and how many are being cancelled? Without historic precedents, it’s challenging to assess.”
Yun also noted that the data sample coverage for pending sales is smaller than the measurement for closed existing-home sales, so the two series will never match one for one.
NAR President Charles McMillan, a broker with Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage in Dallas-Fort Worth, said first-time buyers need to act now. “Potential first-time buyers must make a contract offer very soon to have a reasonable chance of qualifying for the tax credit,” he said. “Congress needs to extend and expand this program because it’s stimulating the economy and reducing inventory close to price stabilization points.”
McMillan said a sizable number of homebuyers already in the pipeline could be let down because of the tight deadline. “We know there is a pent-up demand because sales are below normal levels for the size of our population. The faster we absorb excess inventory, the sooner we’ll turn the corner on home prices, prevent additional families from becoming upside-down in their mortgages, and give Wall Street the confidence to extend credit to other sectors,” he said. “Each home sale pumps an additional $63,000 into the economy through related goods and services, so the benefits of extending and expanding the tax credit far outweigh the costs.”
Yun said the forecast for home sales and prices depends very much on whether a tax credit is extended. “All we can say for certain is sales will decline when the tax credit expires because we are not yet on a self-sustaining recovery path. It also raises a risk of a double-dip recession,” he said. “Extending and expanding the tax credit is the best tool in our arsenal to encourage financially qualified buyers to stimulate the economy and help reduce the budget deficit.” Read more:

Monday, March 02, 2009

Home prices for quarter break string of declines

Home prices for quarter break string of declines

Home prices in Atlantic and Cape May counties increased in the fourth quarter, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency, breaking a string of declines going back a year and a half.
Full Story

Wednesday, December 10, 2008

GREAT RATES, GREAT PRICES

Finally, it's a buyer's market out there.
For years rapidly rising prices kept many first-time home buyers out of the housing market. But as home values slide further downward and interest rates hover at relatively low levels, it may be time to start looking to buy that first house.
That is, if you have a secure job, can afford higher down payments than were required a few years ago and can meet lenders' much stricter income and credit requirements.
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No Money Down? You're Out of Luck
"Lenders aren't cutting everyone off. They're reverting to sanity after years of making bad loans," says Dick Lepre, senior loan officer at Residential Pacific Mortgage, in San Francisco.
The U.S. median home price was $201,000 in January, down 4.6% from January 2007. The S&P/Case-Shiller national home-price index for the fourth quarter was down 8.9% from a year earlier, the biggest drop in its 20 years. Prices have plunged 10% to 12% in troubled markets like Florida and California, and many economists predict an overall slide of 20% or more before the housing market bottoms.
There was a 10-month supply of existing homes for sale in January, up from just under five months during boom times.
If you are about to get into the housing market, this is all good news. But before you begin visiting open houses, recognize that the old home-buying rules no longer apply. You want to approach buying your first house with a financially realistic point of view.
Remember: You're investing in a place to live, not speculating in the stock market or even putting money into a savings account. So keep it simple. Buy smarter. Buy cheaper.
Determine what you can afford. "The days of easy money are over," says Jeff Bogue, a financial planner in Wells, Maine. Mortgage lenders have tightened their standards and are requiring larger down payments. Typically, they want buyers to spend no more than 28% of their gross monthly income on mortgage payments, real-estate taxes and home insurance.
To figure out how much you can afford, use online calculators at realestatejournal.com, dinkytown.com or bankrate.com and "get preapproved or preauthorized for a loan," Mr. Bogue says.
Be sure you also have cash for closing costs like legal fees and title charges. The total typically reaches 2% to 3% of the house price, but differs by state and mortgage product, says Ilona Bray, co-author of "Nolo's Essential Guide to Buying Your First Home." Also be prepared to pay for moving expenses and ongoing maintenance.
Know your market. Gone are the days of "sure thing" home purchases when buyers would bid up prices and then watch the values of their houses soar like tech stocks in 1999. Today, if buyers are bidding at all, they're far more likely to insist on lower prices and to walk away if they don't get what they want.
Now more than ever, location is crucial, down to the neighborhood and street level. Focus on good school districts, crime statistics and any impending construction or public works that could increase or decrease the value of a home. Conduct preliminary research online at Web sites like Zillow.com, Trulia.com and greatschools.net.
"Eighty percent to 90% of housing prices can be explained by what's happening in local economies. Take a hard look at job growth and neighborhood conditions," says Patrick Newport, an economist at Global Insight in Waltham, Mass.
Make your dollars count. Although conditions vary by market, look for a home that is significantly lower than its 2004 price. (You can ask real-estate agents for information and check estimated historical values at Zillow.) "From the peak to trough, home prices in some markets will drop 35% to 40%," says Christopher Thornberg, a principal at Beacon Economics, a consulting and research firm in Los Angeles.
Haggle. Don't assume the seller is even in the right ballpark with his asking price. Most real-estate agents and sellers only look at comparable sales prices, or "comps," of similar homes in similar neighborhoods. Take a lesson from property investors and appraisers instead and check out prices from other angles as well.
Consider what it would cost to buy land and build a comparable structure. Insurance companies can provide general cost estimates, but for a thorough assessment consider hiring an appraiser (search online by zip code at AppraisalInstitute.org).
Also compare your estimated monthly costs for the mortgage, taxes and other expenses with the cost of renting a similar place nearby. If you can rent virtually the same house for a much lower cost, the seller is asking too much.
Builders, sellers and banks are eager to unload unoccupied houses, giving the buyer more leverage to ask for lower prices or incentives. And don't overlook REOs ("real estate owned" properties) held by lenders, says Patrick Carey, executive vice president of default and retention operations for Wells Fargo.
Buy for the long haul. "Most first-time home buyers don't buy the house they're going to end up in," says Ilyce Glink, author of "100 Questions Every First-Time Home Buyer Should Ask." But experts suggest that in a downward market, people should purchase a home only if they intend to live there for seven to 10 years.
"Historically, housing bubbles have taken several years to deflate, but it's hard to tell if we'll see prices drop a lot in the next two or three years or see moderate drops over the next 10 years," says Mr. Newport, the economist.
If you're not planning to stay in the house for long, he notes, "it may be wise to watch from the sidelines."

Thursday, August 07, 2008

»
STATEMENT OF DIRECTOR JAMES B. LOCKHART ON THE CREATION OF FHFA - (07/30/2008)
»
STATEMENT OF OFHEO DIRECTOR JAMES B. LOCKHART - (07/26/2008)
»
STATEMENT OF OFHEO DIRECTOR JAMES B. LOCKHART - (07/23/2008)
»
U.S. MONTHLY HOUSE PRICE INDEX DECLINES 0.3 PERCENT FROM APRIL TO MAY - (07/22/2008)



Download the latest House Price Index for the 1st quarter of 2008 in PDF format

For more data on housing markets and housing finance, go to the Housing Market Indicators page...
MORTGAGE RATES


Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey®
Current Week (ending August 7, 2008)
Prior Week (ending July 31, 2008)
30-Year Fixed Mortgages
6.52 %
15-Year Fixed Mortgages
6.10 %
5/1-Year Adjustable Rate Mortgages
6.05 %
1-Year Adjustable Rate Mortgages
5.22 %

HOUSE PRICES


OFHEO House Price Index (HPI)
Quarterly Price Change(2007Q4-2008Q1)
Four-Quarter Price Change(2007Q1-2008Q1)
All-Transactions U.S. Index
-0.2%
0.0%
"Purchase-Only" U.S. Index (Seasonally Adjusted)
-1.7%
-3.1%
Average House Prices(used to compute conforming loan limit)
October 2007 - May 2008 Price Change
October 2006 - October 2007 Price Change
Federal Housing Finance Board--U.S. Average
3.3%
-3.5%

Tuesday, March 18, 2008

Thursday, March 06, 2008

NEGATIVE NEWS... NOT REALLY THE CASE!

This phenomenon of modern news is on display every time a storm brews in the ocean. Suddenly, the Final Days of Earth are upon us—then the storm turns to a little rain and it's all over. News people love reporting about imminent air disasters, L.A. car chases, and Wall Street's ups and downs.
The problem is that the facts don't support the wild claims.
When a market crashes, there must be a catalyst for that crash. There isn't one. There are only fluctuations. Today's fluctuations may be swinging downward more than last year, but it's by no means a crash. There has been no event—like the stock market crash of 1929 or other disaster—large enough to cause a crash.
Further, I'll go on to say that we are in one of the best times in real estate history. No, I'm not kidding. I'm very serious here. While agents are panicking all across the country and thinking about getting back into the corporate world, I say this is the best time to be a real estate agent.
The news media would laugh at me, but they're not in the trenches every day with me and they don't see what I see. What do I see?
A strong economy. This is a key factor in any analysis of the real estate market. The current economic viability of the United States ensures that no matter how wild the real estate market fluctuations may be, there are still people with money. And people with money will always want new property.
Job growth. Similarly, so long as new jobs are being created, there will always be a demand for housing. Companies open up new facilities and their employees who move there need places to live.
A moving population. Americans move more than ever before. The average time people spend in a home has dropped dramatically over the past 30 years. They buy, sell, move again, buy summer homes, buy winter homes, buy investment property, and buy homes for their parents.
So what's all the hype about, right? How can I possibly make these apparently outlandish statements while the news media is saying the exact opposite?
Well, the market HAS cooled a little bit. No, I take back the word "cooled." That just feeds the media's "crash" frenzy. The numbers have slightly declined, but they've declined in a market that was in the midst of the biggest boom in history. That fact must be taken into consideration for any accurate analysis.
Remember, the past ten years have been spectacular—in fact, abnormally high. Numbers may be dropping a bit, but they're dropping to a level that is still above average.
Let's put things into a numbers' perspective. If our market in 2005 had increased by 25%, then "cooled" 4% in 2006, then we're still 21% up! This is not a "crash." This isn't even "cooling," but according to the news media the real estate market as we know it is about to explode. I don't think so.
Okay, let's play their game and we'll say the market crashes tomorrow. According to the media, this would mean that there is no more real estate activity or reason for anyone to buy. What they do not take into account is the fact that no matter what happens in the real estate market, the necessities of life guarantee real estate transactions. Even if interest rates went up to 18%, there would still be a lot of real estate activity.
Remember 20 years ago when interest rates went into double digits? Were real estate agents not working? No. Were people not selling? No. Things may have worked a bit differently.
The market also takes care of itself in up-and down-turns because when interest rates rise, prices drop. There is always a balance effect. Not to mention there are scores of people who come out of the woodwork to take advantage of a "down" market by buying at lower prices—people who would not buy in an "up" market, because prices were too high.
So, stop fearing the crash! First of all, there isn't one. And even if there were, your best antidote is the knowledge that no matter what kind of market we're in, you can survive. Your attitude is your greatest ally.

Wednesday, November 14, 2007

'Roulette Economy' of 2007 Is Almost Over

“The roulette economy” of 2007, fueled by subprime greed and then buyers’ fear, is almost over. With a favorable economy, pent-up home demand, and Wall Street “fessing up to its losses and cleaning up its underwriting,” 2008 will be a healthy market for serious buyers.

Home prices nationally have declined by some 1.5 percent in 2007, which is "no big deal" after years of rapid appreciation. There are still many markets that are appreciating and may even be undervalued.

Subprime constitutes only about 10 percent of mortgage loans, but accounts for some 40 percent of current foreclosures. Going forward, proposed federal legislation that would increase FHA loan limits should help moderate-income buyers.

GDP growth of 2.8 percent and job growth of 1.1 percent in 2008. Inflation should also remain under 3 percent, and interest rates should rise only slightly, he predicts. “For buyers who are into home ownership for the long term, housing still remains the best investment,”

THERE ARE THREE INDICATORS WE ARE LOOKING FOR AS THE MARKET STARTS TO STABILIZE AND TURN AROUND.

First would be a drop in new listings, indicating sellers are withdrawing from the market. Second, days on market will fall. And third, the gap between listing price and sales price will narrow.

Wednesday, October 24, 2007

Monday, October 22, 2007

Investing in Real Estate

Real estate mogul Donald Trump discusses whether now is the time to buy real estate, particularly properties in foreclosure, with CNBC's Erin Burnett
**CLICK ON THE LINK INVESTING IN REAL ESTATE...PLEASE ALLOW THE VIDEO TO LOAD FOR 1 MINUTE AFTER THE COMMERCIAL IS EXECUTED**

Wednesday, October 17, 2007

U.S.Existing Home Sales


Market Update

The market has been slow but prices are stable after declining for nearly 2 years. Interest rates are still at 30 year lows. The fed funds and the fed discount rates have been dropping over the lat few meetings and should conitinue to fall as we close out 2007. This is a very opportune market, there are situations currently where owners have a high rate adjustable loan and can't afford payments, any longer. There are more of these situations on the mainland versus the barrier islands but occasionally we will see defaults come across the table. At that point we will contact the owners about a short sale situation where we get the mortgage company to reduce the overall default interest and possibly some of the principal owed against the residence. This will enable the seller to walk away virtually avoiding a foreclosure which is detrimental to anyone's credit.

This is the ULTIMATE BUYER'S MARKET and we will only get one shot at buying property near the bottom once. After which prices will start to increase after the stabilization period is over. If your strategy is to fulfill your Dream of a Home at the Jersey Shore, and you intend to hold the property for 5,7, 10 years or more .... it's time to put that plan to work ! Price adjustments are making this a Second Opportunity for many buyers who put off their purchasing decision the past few years. So, if you've been waiting for the right time to look for the home of your dreams - the Time is Now to MAKE AN OFFER !